A FEW WORDS ABOUT MR. BERNARD KERIK.
So the pundit class is all a-flutter about the withdrawal of Kerik's nomination as Minister of the Homefront. Let's look at the things we know about this situation:
- The initial reason for the withdrawal is that Kerik had a surprise "nanny problem." Now it seems that he's had at least two affairs, as well.
- Kerik has also had a warrant issued for his arrest relating to his ownership of a condo in New Jersey, and appears to be mobbed up.
- Not to mention his sudden, premature and unexplained departure from his job training Iraqi security forces.
- The White House claims not to have known about the nanny or the affairs but obfuscates on whether or not their vetting process (run by AG-nom Gonzales) revealed the other stuff; they obviously know that he left Iraq extremely early and for no given reason.
- Kerik was widely seen as Giuliani's choice and a proxy for the slippery-tongued adulterer himself.
- Giuliani's rise to national prominence in the last three years has him in the list of likely candidates for the 2008 Republican nomination for President. Despite being pro-choice, pro-gay rights and generally center-left on most social issues and pro-urban on the economic issues that most divide urban and rural voters, some people who would know (including at least one poli. sci. professor here in Madison) believe he has a shot at taking the nomination.
- The GOP establishment is virulently anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-urban, anti-center-left, etc.
- The GOP establishment includes virtually everyone involved in the nominating and vetting process within the White House.
- Since Kerik's downfall, the mainstream media has reminded the audience in every story on the subject that Giuliani made the recommendation. This includes the stories about Giuliani's apology to Bush.
I think you can see where this is going. I think Rove et al. sandbagged Giuliani because they know that nobody's going to ask or even care if the White House knew about these things beforehand. Next week, Bush nominates Asa Hutchinson and he's never linked to Kerik again; in two and a half years, Giuliani can't stop getting asked about the guy.
Posted by Aaron S. Veenstra ::: 2004:12:13:21:12
Why would Bush want to discredit Giuliani? It was up to the Bushmen to find out all there was to know about Kerik BEFORE they nominated him, hearsay from Rudy ("Bernie's a great guy. He's a real 9-11 HERO.") notwishstanding.
Cheney will not be running for President in 2008 and they don't appear to have anyone in their own stable to take up the cause, so why not Rudy? Is he too left of center for them? Is he too urban? He's certainly not shy about his public life, so the facts about his adultery are not an issue (or won't be with likely voters). His stand on abortion and gay issues are more likely to hit Mr. and Mrs. Midwestern Republican a little harder.
So what's the reason behind the slap?
This wouldn't be a Bush operation as much as Rove operation, and Rove is a hardcore movement conservative with no scruples. And what Rove wants -- all protestations to the contrary aside -- is JEB!
The storyline that we're getting now is that Bush really liked this guy -- looked into his eyes, into his soul, just like his good buddy and fellow patron of democracy, Vlad Putin -- and was emotionally attached to him in a down-home and not at all gay way. His background was for Al to worry about. And, you know, good ol' folksy George got burned by the mean ol' media, who won't let our best and brightest serve without giving them the third degree.
Remember, McCain was a lot more ideologically close to the Cheney/Rove axis than Giuliani is, and McCain got flat out murdered in 2000. Giuliani is not getting anywhere near the nomination.
I'm not so sure... I think as we get closer to 2007, Rudy will become more and more attractive to a lot of people. He's a popular former governor from a populous state and he's been by all appearances a stand-up guy. (I'm sure that's by design.) I believe Rove et al will not remain in any kind of power position long enough to push their own agenda. George W is one thing; Jeb is quite another. He won't get elected. He won't even get nominated. He should thank his lucky stars he has the job he does, where he does. His son, on the other hand, has some possiblities...
Rudy (Mayor, BTW), stand-up? This is the guy who used his cancer as an excuse to drop out of the 2000 Senate race, right before his big fat affair was about to come out.
As for JEB!, he's widely seen as the much more competent Bush son, and the one who was groomed for years and years for the job (remember, GW was a black sheep until Jesus came to his 40th birthday party). He's been elected twice in a divided state (FL is no TX for Republicans) and has a job that actually requires some work, unlike the Governorship of TX, which is mostly ceremonial.
JEB! says he isn't interested. I don't believe him. The Rove Machine is running the GOP right now, and that means they don't have to compromise on guns, gays and God.
BTW, I think a lot of the reason people underestimate JEB! is because of his name. In fact, JEB! is not his name, his name is John Ellis Bush. He goes by JEB! because it's down-home, much like Arrested Development's George Oscar Bluth goes by GOB because he's an idiot.