THE WIRE.

There's a week left until the most important midterm elections in 32 years. There's no point in talking about individual races, because if you don't know by now how essential it is that you vote Democratic in every race, words won't convince you. But I do want to talk about what may happen as we come to and cross the finish line, and move immediately into the 2008 election cycle.

First, what I think will happen next Tuesday:

House of Representatives - 232 Democrats, 203 Republicans (30-seat swing)
Senate - 51 Democrats*, 49 Republicans (Democrats take MT, OH, RI, PA, MO, VA; retain all held seats)
Governorships - Democrats take OH, NY, MA, MN, MD, AR; retain all held seats

* This total includes Joe Lieberman winning on the Connecticut For Lieberman ticket, over Democratic nominee Ned Lamont. Lieberman has said that he will caucus with the Democrats and vote for Harry Reid for Majority Leader. I think there's a much better than even chance that if the Senate comes out 51-49, as I've predicted, that Lieberman will go back on his pledge and support Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for Majority Leader, giving Dick Cheney the tie-breaking vote and Republicans control of the Senate. And indeed, the fact that Lieberman looks like he's going to win despite everything he's done is one of the most perplexing things about this election cycle. Were he nominally, instead of just spiritually and behaviorally, a Republican, he would be ridden out of town on a rail alongside Rick Santorum; instead the blue voters of Connecticut seem content to line up behind one of the Iraq War's biggest cheerleaders and one of the GOP's biggest money-dumps of 2006. But I digress -- fuck Joe Lieberman.

For many people, I expect this campaign has felt like a 15-round brawl, and perhaps one that they had no interest in seeing or being a part of. Folks will feel justifiably relieved when the morning of the 8th rolls around, if only because it'll be over. But it won't.

George Bush isn't going to go away. The modern GOP isn't going to go away. Fox News isn't going to go away. Katie Couric isn't going to go way. Mark Halperin isn't going to go away. If the Democrats take over either house of Congress, these people are all going to lose their minds a week from tomorrow. Washington will face its greatest fire risk since the War of 1812 from the sudden and frantic construction of strawmen all over the city, which heroic Republicans and their surrogates will immediately swat down. All this screeching is part one of their 2008 election strategy -- blame "the Democrat Party" early, often and loudly. This is the silver lining in losing Congress: They'll have somebody else to blame. And as bad as the last two years have been, the next two will be much worse because of it.

Posted by Aaron S. Veenstra ::: 2006:10:31:10:49